One less QB this April

News out of Oklahoma today is that Landry Jones is staying in school for another year.

This is not as deep of a QB draft as once thought, now that he and Matt Barkley aren't coming out early.

Given the lack of QBs and my unwillingness to trade the farm for RGIII, I think the Hawks need to get a pass rushing defensive end at #11 or 12.

Thoughts on Matt Flynn

Let's face it, the Packers are going to use the Franchise Tag on Matt Flynn this off-season. They would be crazy not to. Using the tag ensures that they will receive some sort of compensation for their back-up QB—instead of letting him walk-away in free agency for nothing.

It mirrors the move that the Patriots made with Matt Cassel, trading him for a 2nd round pick after tagging him.

That said, I don't think it is worth it to give up a high pick for an unproven, 27 year old talent. Look what happened to Arizona last year with Kevin Kolb. They gave up a 2nd rounder and a starting corner and got a 2-6 record and a QB controversy in return. The media is speculating that the cost for Flynn could be a first rounder given the fact that 4 to 6 teams may be interested. If tagged, I hope the Hawks sit this one out.

I would be all for signing Flynn as a free agent though, as all you would be risking are salary cap dollars. The Hawks have a ton of room under the cap (30 million?) and will free up more money once Misters Whitehurst and Trufant are no longer with the team. CW's 4 million will be off the books and Tru's 2012 salary is 7.3 million which I didn't think the Hawks would pay (see post) even before Browner and Sherman emerged as bonafide starters.

I would hate to see the front office give up a top pick or picks for a big unknown—given that the team still has room to improve at a number of positions. Maybe the failed Charlie Whitehurst experiment will prevent it from happening again.

Making Progress, Part Three

If you look at the average age of the Seahawks 2011 roster it is 25.8. 
Last year the team average was 26.9. 
Both numbers include the 53 man roster plus IR.
Getting younger AND getting better is a great combination.


The Sea Gals are heading in the right direction, too.

Another reason to embrace the team's youth movement.

Making Progress, Part Two

I mentioned a while back that the Hawks were on the cusp of becoming a top 10 defense. Well, they finished #9 in yards against and #7 in points. A HUGE improvement over the last few years.
Here's how this team stacked up:

League Ranking In:
	Yards	Points	Turnovers
2011	9	7	5
2010	27	25	28
2009	24	25	26
2008	30	25	25

You could argue that these numbers are all because of an improved defense, but that is not entirely the case. The defense was on the field less in 2011, and the offense turned the ball over less than in previous years.

	Time of Possession	Give Aways
2011	28:18	23
2010	27:18	31
2009	27:30	31
2008	26:37	27

Making Progress, Part One

As last year's Seahawks and this year's team both finished with 7-9 records, there are a number of ways to see how the team is headed in the right direction. Here is one:

The 9 losses in the 2010 regular season were by an average score of 14 to 35, essentially getting blown out in every loss. The margin of defeat was a whopping 21 points.

The 9 losses in the 2011 season were by an average score of 14 to 24. The Hawks were in every game except for 2 (Pittsburgh and Cincy) and lost by a margin of just under 10 points a game.

A Quick Look at Our Free Agents

Here is a partial list of the 18 Seahawks who are no longer under contract in 2012 and will be Free Agents in the spring:

Pay Them

• Marshawn Lynch, RB, age 25.
• Red Bryant, DE, age 27.

Nice to Have

• John Carlson, TE, age 27.
• Kennard Cox, CB, age 26.
• Michael Robinson, FB, age 28.
• Leroy Hill, LB age 29.
• David Hawthorne, LB, age 26.
• Paul McQuistan, OT, age 28.
• Breno Giacomini, OT, age 26.

Goners

• Chaz Whitehurst, QB, age 29.
• Raheem Brock, DE, age 33.
• Chris Baker, TE, age 32.
• Justin Forsett, RB, age 26.
• Matt McCoy, LB, age 29.

Lynch is the heart and soul of the offense, if you let him go, it puts a lot of pressure on the QB and that is not a good thing. They can't afford to take a step backwards offensively. Big Red is an essential piece to the young defense getting even better next year.

In the next category, I don't think any of the players are going to be particularly expensive:

• Carlson's numbers have been going in the wrong direction and the injury this year will also lower his value.
• Cox is a special teams player only, so he will come cheap. The team sure needs his kick coverage skills (see Ted Ginn).
• Robinson is a decent blocking FB and a good Special teamer. I am not entirely sold on him as a road-grading FB (i.e. Mack Strong) but he gets the job done.
• Etiher Hill or Hawthorne will need to be signed. I have a feeling one of these two will be moving on. I think the Hawks will draft another LB and will have to decide on whether to move KJ Wright to the middle or whether they need to replace LeRoy. Hawthorne was slowed by injury this year but still performed adequately. He is undersized and a little slow but makes a lot of plays. Ideally, I think the team would like a bigger Mike LB. Hill played well all year, but he is getting older on a young defense and might be the odd man out.
• McQuistan and Giacomini need to come back given the lack of health of the starting five. They proved to be solid backups, if not starters in the league. Their depth and experience will be needed in 2012.

Welcome to the Off-Season

Happy New Year...now clean out your locker.

"Hey Charlie, How about our 8 million back?" 

A Loss Sunday is really a Win

Now that the playoffs are no longer a possibility, it is time to improve draft positioning. A loss, coupled with a few 6-8 teams winning could put the Seahawks drafting in the #9 spot next spring. A win Sunday could have them picking as late as #20 (when strength of schedule gets sorted out).

Those are some serious Depends®.

I know PC and the players want to finish the season strong--and there is something to finishing .500, but at what price? Last year the playoff run was worth it, but very costly. The team dropped 17 positions in the first round (from #8 to #25 by beating St. Louis and NO).

This season is already viewed as a success--with either 7 or 8 wins. The Hawks exceeded everyone's expectations. Most "experts" projected Seattle with a top 3 pick before the season started. So, this year a week 17 loss would help the team more than hurt them.

As Ronald Reagan once said, "Just win lose one for the Gipper!"

Roster Churn is Paying Dividends

For those naysayers who said that PC and JS were turning over the roster too quickly, it is fair to say that they were dead wrong. The cupboard was essentially bare when they took over, and in less than two years they have orchestrated a massive turn around in the talent level and overall depth of the team. Let's look at some key players and how they were acquired:

• Drafted in 2010--Earl Thomas, Russell Okung, Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor
• Drafted in 2011--KJ Wright, Malcolm Smith, Richard Sherman, Byron Maxwell, James Carpenter, John Moffit 
• Undrafted FA in 2011--Doug Baldwin, Josh Portis
• Trades--Chris Clemons, Marshawn Lynch, Leon Washington, Clint McDonald
• Free Agents--Alan Branch, Zach Miller, Sidney Rice, Robert Gallery, Anthony Hargrove,  Tarvaris Jackson
• Players cut from other teams--Atari Bigby, Michael Robinson, Raheem Brock
• Players left for dead--Brandon Browner, Mike Williams

I only count 12 players left from the Tim Ruskell era: Marcus Trufant, John Carlson, Leroy Hill, John Ryan, Ben Obomanu, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Roy Lewis, Justin Forsett, Max Unger, Deon Butler and Cameron Morrah.

After next summer's training camp, this number will be in the single digits with Trufant, Forsett, Morrah and Carlson potentially not returning.

Looking at the SF Matchup

I was a bit surprised when comparing the teams statistically, that they are more equal than you would think--especially based on their win/loss records.

Both teams are built on the same formula, a sound defense, a running offense and not turning the ball over.

• The Niners have the #25 ranked offense (9 rushing, 29 passing).
• The Hawks have the #28 offense (22 rushing, 23 passing).

• The Niners have the #5 ranked defense (1 rushing, 21 passing).
• The Hawks have the #8 defense (11 rushing, 13 passing).

The big difference is turnover margin: SF: +25, SEA +8

Hopefully the 12th Man can make a difference on Saturday.